Future expectations:

How did we do it:

The forecast was created using the following steps:

1. We began with an initial allocated budget for user acquisition and an average cost per install for each user, which was derived from market data and previous soft launch tests. This allowed us to determine the number of users we could acquire.
2. By estimating a consistent growth in installs through the improvement of our user acquisition campaigns and an increase in our organic user base, we were able to determine the long-term growth and costs for new users to install the app.
3. We applied retention rates to estimate the average number of Daily Active Users (DAU).
4. With the DAU data in hand, we calculated the Monthly Active Users (MAU) by researching the market and applying various calculations from it and from previous soft launches.
5. Lastly, we used the number of unique monthly users, conversion rate, view ads rate, eCPM, and Average Revenue Per Paying User (ARPPU) to estimate the Free-to-Play (F2P) revenue.

In addition to these steps, we took into consideration other factors such as market trends, competitor analysis, and user behavior patterns to refine our forecast and make it more accurate.

This plan led us to the following forecasted details and numbers:

Forecast Plan: Free-to-Play Mobile Game with Web3 Integration

1. User Acquisition (UA):
   • Utilize user acquisition strategies, focusing on them for the first 24 months.
   • Allocate a $100,000 budget per year for the first four years.
   • Begin with 100% UA users in the first month and slowly increase the organic user base.
   • By the end of the first 12 months, aim for a 50-50 balance between organic and UA users.
   • Boost organic downloads through expanding social network platforms and strategies.
   • Increase UA downloads by analyzing the audience, enhancing campaigns with popular assets, and using effective UA platforms.